I'm talking about sort of turning different parties against each other. Friedman, a military historian and tactician, went further: This isnt a good army executing a bad plan. Hence the stories of captured Russian troops who had no idea why they were in Ukraine. [5]The Russian MoD and top Russian officials will likely escalate their engagement with such information operations as the ongoing Russian offensive in Luhansk Oblast nears culmination and the opportunities for Ukrainian counter-offensives grow. [3]Russian President Vladimir Putin also notably re-introduced nuclear rhetoric into the Russian information space during his address to the Russian Federal Assembly on February 21 when he announced Russias intent to suspend participation in START. Nicholas Slayton Such attacks demonstrate a failure to coordinate disparate units on the battlefield and failed to take advantage of the full power of the Russian force, Mr. Kagan said. [27]Russian milbloggers claimed that elements of the 254th Motorized Rifle Regiment (144th Motorized Rifle Division, 20th Combined Arms Army, Western Military District) fought near Kreminna. The invocation of Chechnya and Finland is peculiar as while both conflicts with Russia suggest certain operational and tactical lessons, neither ended victoriously for Russia's opponents. Most of Russias initial attacks in Ukraine were relatively small, involving at most two or three battalions. They don't address terrorism, insurgent groups or groups like mercenaries. But in the end, military officials say they still expect that mass will matter. [64]Prigozhin praised the soldiers and stated that he has already asked Russian military authorities to transfer them to a Wagner subgroup. The use of that kind of force would expose not only the miscalculations the Kremlin made in launching a complex, three-sided invasion but also the limits of Russias military upgrades. WebPutin brags that Russian weapons are 'years, perhaps even decades' ahead of rivals as his army pulls old Soviet-era tanks out of deep storage due to losses in Ukraine Jake Epstein 2022-08-16T13:56:17Z The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) accused the US and its accomplices on February 28 of planning to carry out a provocation in Ukraine using toxic chemicals. Potemkin military.. Regarding claims Russia lacks manpower due to a shrinking population, in fact only 5% of each yearly male cohort is conscripted, and the pool of available manpower is expected to increase for at least a decade. [51]https://t.me/dnipropetrovskaODA/3344;https://t.me/Yevtushenko_E/2691 [52]https://t.me/dnipropetrovskaODA/3344;https://t.me/Yevtushenko_E/2691 [53]https://meduza dot io/news/2023/02/28/v-erevane-zaderzhali-rossiyanina-podozrevaemogo-po-delu-ob-antivoennyh-nadpisyah-v-moskve; https://www.police dot am/ru/news/view/%D5%BE%D5%A1%D5%B6%D5%A4%D5%A1%D5%AC%D5%A B%D5%A6%D5%B4280223.html;https://www.azatutyun.am/a/32292266.html;https://www.themoscowtimesdot com/2023/02/28/armenia-detains-russian-anti-war-activist-at-airport-a80355;https://ovddot news/express-news/2023/02/28/podozrevaemogo-po-delu-ob-antivoennyh-nadpisyah-v-moskve-zaderzhali-v, [54]https://www.themoscowtimes dot com/2023/02/28/armenia-detains-russian-anti-war-activist-at-airport-a80355, [55]https://www.azatutyundot am/a/32292266.html. Whats their motivation for telling us? And certainly, you know, when conventional war in Ukraine fails, which I think it will, Putin will move to an unconventional war phase where he's going to flatten cities like he did in Grozny, too, and Aleppo in Syria. They need to be escorted by infantry troops alongside or by combat planes from above, to avoid getting ambushed. But nearly two weeks into President Vladimir V. Putins invasion of Ukraine Europes largest land war since 1945 the image of a Russian military as one that other countries should fear, let alone emulate, has been shattered. Convoys of tanks are rolling inhowever slowlyfrom the north, west, and south. [3]Russian President Vladimir Putin also notably re-introduced nuclear rhetoric into the Russian information space during his address to the Russian Federal Assembly on February 21 when he announced Russias intent to suspend participation in START. [1] The Russian MoD relatedly claimed on February 19 that Ukrainian officials are planning false-flag attacks at hazardous radiation facilities in Ukraine to accuse Russian forces of indiscriminately striking such sites. Military operations designed to take place sequentiallyStep 1, then 2, then 3, etc.fell apart, catastrophically. [11]Peskov added that Ukraine also needs to consider Russias specific goals in the war in Ukraine to reach a negotiated settlement. [21]US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director William Burns stated on February 25 that the CIA is confident that Chinese leadership is considering the provision of lethal equipment to Russia. Its seen as the first part of an expected spring offensive, and so far is not going well. Deutsche Wellereported that Lukashenko will sign a large package of agreements on developing joint projects, trade, economic, investment, humanitarian cooperation, and political cooperation with China during his three-day visit. Slate is published by The Slate Group, a Graham Holdings Company. The reporter and at least one editor know the identity of the source. Russian independent media outlets also reported on February 27 that Russian courts extended the sentence of a Moscow resident previously sentenced for an arson attack on a military commissariat and sentenced a Volgograd resident to four years in prison for setting fire to the back room of a military registration and enlistment office on Videos taken by Ukrainian fighters and shared online have shown Russian tanks attempting to cross fields and roads, only to crash to a halt as a mine blows up beneath them. And right now, they're going through the streets of Kyiv in plainclothes. as well as other partner offers and accept our. Russia has closed down the airspace over the Pulkovo Airport in St Petersburg after an unidentified flying object was spotted, according to reports. [40]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0dDf2w34VWwwcuYqnxSQ [41]https://t.me/readovkanews/53706;https://t.me/sashakots/38685. Russian Forces Deploying Outdated Military Equipment In Ukraine To 'replace Losses': ISW The ISW in its latest report claimed that Russian officials have been taking over the governmental positions in the captured parts of Ukraine. [16]Lukashenko also blamed the West and the US for coercing Ukrainian officials into rejecting negotiations with Russia. All contents 2023 The Slate Group LLC. Losing 10,000 before breakfast never hurt the career of a Russian general, but with no surplus boys, Russia too is post-heroic. NATO? MARTIN: And by hybrid warfare, what do we mean? By Dr Igor Sutyagin. [7]https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign [8]http://en.kremlindot ru/events/president/news/70597, [9]http://en.kremlindot ru/events/president/news/70597. The extension of Russian prosecution efforts and Armenian cooperation are both significant events, though it is noteworthy that Russia and Armenia have an existing extradition treaty. In total, russia has only 6 A-50Us and 3 outdated A-50s. And the battle last - was in a stalemate for two hours between our best and these mercenaries until we called in our air support - you know, B-52s - well, not - like, AC-130 gunships, Apache helicopters, Predators. Russian occupation officials continue efforts to use educational institutions to eradicate Ukrainian identity in occupied territories. It's a rare acknowledgment of the flaws in the Russian military's capabilities revealed by the war. They don't address non-state actors. The military mobilized an unspecified amount of BTR-50 armored personnel carriers, which have been spotted in Russian-occupied territory. Anyone can read what you share. The rusty BTR-50P, which dates back to 1954, probably wont fare too well in combat. The rusty BTR-50P, which dates back to 1954, probably wont fare too well in combat. The Way Ahead: Three Defining Elements for Russia ISW will revise this text and its assessment if it observes any unambiguous indicators that Russia or Belarus is preparing to attack northern Ukraine. The tweet claims the tank was abandoned in good condition and fully-loaded. Its a little bit early to draw any definitive lessons learned, he added. [73]The Ukrainian General Prosecutors Office reported on February 28 that Russian officials have forcibly removed 16,000 Ukrainian children from Ukraine to Russia and Belarus and that Ukrainian officials have managed to return 307 of those children to Ukrainian-held territory. ISW will continue to report daily observed Russian and Belarusian military activity in Belarus, but these are not indicators that Russian and Belarusian forces are preparing for an imminent attack on Ukraine from Belarus. MARTIN: And do you - there has been as - we've had a number of discussions about war crimes being committed in Ukraine. The Kremlin is likely attempting to reintroduce a Russian information operation aimed at falsely portraying Russia as being open to negotiations while the collective West refuses to negotiate. [64]https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1630478324215455745;https://t.me [65]https://t.me/grey_zone/17471;https://t.me/concordgroup_official/528; [66]https://www.fontanka dot ru/2023/02/27/72090578/; https://t.me/astrapress/21942. But as a military advisor you cannot report that to the President. I'm not talking to anybody on the streets. But it is relentless, and theres still a lot of force to be applied., As Russias Military Stumbles, Its Adversaries Take Note, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/07/us/politics/russia-ukraine-military.html. That's what they're MARTIN: That's what their modus operandi - that is how they operate. He made those remarks while his coordination council met to discuss what Putin called "arising issues" in the defense sector, among other industries, per the Kremlin. Only 64% of Russian military equipment and machinery is new or recent. Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin is currently in a war of words with the Russian military, accusing it of not supplying his organization with ammunition. [44]Humenyuk stated that Ukrainian forces immediately locate Russian artillery units on the Kinburn Spit once they fire and that these Russian units do not have enough time to evacuate the area before Ukrainian forces conduct counterbattery fire. [17]The Kremlin and Lukashenko are likely seizing on Chinas release of a 12-point peace plan to reintroduce an existing Russian information operation that the Kremlin used in December 2022. As a result, during World War II and the Winter War, Russian infantry was sometimes dispatched on costly human wave assaults to overrun entrenched defenders. I mean, are they Russian nationals? Weapons manufacturers should get feedback from soldiers, he said on Wednesday. Moscows forces are likely to step up the kind of broader attacks that have led to rising numbers of civilian deaths. WebRussia held its annual Victory Day military parade in Moscow on Monday but canceled the air force flyby over what it said was bad weather. Accuracy and availability may vary. The Ukrainian General Staff amplified on February 28 a report from Ukraines Head of the Center for Trophy Research, Colonel Alexander Zaruba, assessing that Russian purchases of equipment from North Korea and Iran and deployment of outdated Kh-22 missiles indicate that Russia itself cannot meet wartime production needs. Russias War Time T-62 Tanks Russia has also reportedly lost an estimated total of 21,800 soldiers, and 191 drones. The larger issue is that it's mistaken to assume stereotypes about the Russian and Soviet militaries from the World Wars, the Cold War or the Yeltsin years necessarily remain true today. We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because those activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. Russia is believed to have lost almost 1,000 tanks in its war with Ukraine, a senior US defense official said Thursday. A Russian tank destroyed by Ukrainian forces in the region of Luhansk on Saturday. The Ukrainian General Staff noted that Russian troops continued unspecified offensive actions in the western Donetsk Oblast direction. Russia Is Still Using 60-Year-Old Tanks in Ukraine. [42]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0dDf2w34VWwwcuYqnxSQ [44]https://armyinform.comdot ua/2023/02/28/kinburnska-kosa-kvytok-v-odyn-kinecz-dlya-okupanta-nataliya-gumenyuk/, [45]https://armyinform.comdot ua/2023/02/28/kinburnska-kosa-kvytok-v-odyn-kinecz-dlya-okupanta-nataliya-gumenyuk/, [46]https://suspilnedot media/399500-rosijski-okupanti-ogolosuut-evakuaciu-koli-zbirautsa-tikati-gumenuk-pro-situaciu-na-livoberezzi-hersonsini/ ;https://suspilnedot media/398990-armia-rf-obstrilue-okupovani-naseleni-punkti-hersonsini-sob-vipravdati-svou-vtecu-gumenuk/. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Bakhmut is also where the Kremlin-aligned mercenary organization the Wagner Group has been leading the push, suffering heavy losses along the way, many of which are from the convicts recruited into the group. [58]Business InsiderandThe Economistnoted that 18 Russian factories are refurbishing old tanks and that two more repair plants will soon join the efforts. British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace claimed, citing reports, that a Russian brigade was effectively annihilated and 1,000 fighters killed between Feb. 14-15. So it's really curious. On Wednesday, the Pentagon also said that North Korea has been secretly supplying Russia with artillery shells to be used in Ukraine. WebAnswer (1 of 21): Yes. There is a larger factor here: The Russian army is composed, by and large, of one-year conscripts, who are poorly trained (even within the confines of Russian military training), badly treated, and uninspired by ideology or any other motivating spirit. ISW has previously reported on the correlation between Russian information operations and battlefield realities, particularly when Russian forces are failing to take significant ground in offensive operations in Ukraine. [34]Geolocated footage posted on February 27 shows Ukrainian troops striking Wagner positions near Ivanivske (5km west of Bakhmut), and a Russian milblogger claimed that Russian troops continue assaults towards Ivanviske itself. According to russian sources, the cost of one modified A-50U filled with valuable electronics is close to $330 million. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces are defending in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts but are trying to create conditions that will allow Russian forces to conduct offensives in some unspecified areas of this part of the front. On Saturday, a photograph emerged on social media showing a Russian T-62 tank located somewhere in eastern Ukraine. For over a decade, Russia has undergone a great modernization of its military. The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense reported that Russias Aerospace Forces would likely have only six operational A-50s in service if this attack were successful. 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